MEMRI-Kurzmeldungen

Aufruf zur Demonstration am 11.2

The two main opposition leaders in Iran called on their supporters on Saturday to take part in a demonstration on Feb. 11, the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

Mir Hussein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi, the opposition leaders, urged supporters to participate in the rally next month, the opposition Jaras Web site reported. Protesters have hijacked public events to stage antigovernment rallies since the disputed June 12 election. (…)

The Feb. 11 protest would be the first rally since Dec. 27.

A senior Revolutionary Guards commander, Hussein Hamedani, warned that the force would not “allow the Green Movement to make an appearance” during the annual rally, the ISNA student news agency reported.

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Positives zum Iran aus der Schweiz, ausnahmweise

The Swiss engineering group ABB AG has stopped taking new orders in Iran with a view to ending operations in the country.

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Iran stellt sich auf Sanktionen ein

Laut Presseberichten plant Teheran den Bau von sieben neuen Erdölraffinerien. Iran hat zwar große eigene Ölvorkommen, verfügt  aber nur über geringe Raffineriekapazitäten. Daher muss iranisches Öl im Ausland zu Kraftstoffen und Gasen verarbeitet werden. Dieser neuralgische Punkt wäre ein geeignetes Ziel für Sanktionen gegen das Regime.

JPost – Iran relies on exporting its oil to southern Gulf countries for refinement, which necessitates re-importing its own oil at a much higher price. New sanctions being considered against Iran by the United States plan to target this dependence. “From an economic point of view, it’s very difficult, simply because it’s going to be a very costly enterprise,” Mohammed Shakeel, editor and economist with the Economist Intelligence Unit, told The Media Line. “But also for Iran, it’s a very immediate concern as well, because the threat of sanctions is targeting that particular sector. So the government wants to show that it’s on top of developing its refineries, and therefore is able to handle any pressure from sanctions,” he said. “Whether it has the resources to carry this out is a completely different story,” Shakeel added, referring to the huge costs of constructing refineries.

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Das mörderische Küchenkabinett

Foreign Policy berichtet ausführlich über die Patronagenetzwerke die Ahmadineschad zur Konsolidierung seiner Macht nutzt. Mit Hilfe eines eingeschworenen Kreises von Gefolgsleuten die ihm bedingungslose Loyalität entgegenbringen kontrolliert der Präsident Schlüsselpositionen im iranischen Staatsapparat.

Unswerving loyalty has proven to be the blueprint for career advancement within Ahmadinejad’s circle. When Ahmadinejad wanted to secure control of the Intelligence Ministry, he appointed Heydar Moslehi as minister in August 2009, even though Moslehi had no experience in intelligence work and was unknown in government circles. Shortly beforehand, the president sacked Mohseni-Ejei, then intelligence minister, after he refused to participate in cabinet meetings with Mashaie, who was vice president at the time. Some analysts in Iran think that Ahmadinejad used this as an excuse to place his own loyalist as head of the ministry, which plays a key role in spying on and identifying Iranians who work with the opposition movement inside Iran and outside the country. Moslehi has served Ahmadinejad well. He is the leading advocate of a government crackdown on the public intellectuals and journalists who form the intellectual wing of the opposition. After the massive demonstrations in Iran last December, Moslehi stated in an interview on state-run television: “This unrest is different from that of the past and is a prearranged counterrevolutionary movement, designed by agents of the sedition.”

Sippenhaftung in Iran

Der Fall Arash Rahmanipours macht deutlich, mit welcher Brutalität die Machthaber in Teheran die Angehörigen von Oppositionellen terrorisieren. Der 19-Jährige war am 28. Januar wegen seiner Rolle bei den Protesten im Juni 2009 hingerichtet worden, obwohl er damals bereits im Gefängnis saß. Um ihn unter Druck zu setzen hatten die Schergen des Regimes auch seine schwangere Schwester verhaftet und während der Verhöre zu ihm gebracht. Sie hat ihr Kind verloren. In diesem Interview mit Radio Farda beschreibt Rahmanipours Vater, wie die Mörder es sich noch am Tag der Hinrichtung nicht nehmen ließen seine Familie zu verhöhnen:

Rahmanipour: Yes, on Monday night my son contacted me and told me that we could visit him on Thursday [January 28]. We were happy and on Thursday we went to visit him at Evin Prison, but there we were told that he has been transferred to Karaj. That’s all [the prison officials] said and we believed them. On the way we realized that state television had announced that he had been hanged that morning and became a martyr.

Germany Picks Up the Slack on Iran (?)

Stratfor berichtet in einer lesenswerten Analyse über den scheinbaren Wandel der deutschen Haltung gegenüber dem Iran. Zunächst wird noch einmal betont, wie gut und intensiv die (v.a. wirtschaftlichen) Beziehungen der beiden Länder bis dato waren:

We therefore turn to Berlin where German Chancellor Angela Merkel made her most forceful statement to date on the question of sanctions against the Iranian regime. Standing next to Israeli President Shimon Peres on Tuesday, Merkel said, “Iran’s time is up. It is now time to discuss widespread international sanctions. We have shown much patience and that patience is up.” [...]

The spat between Iran and Germany makes for some interesting geopolitical drama. First, Germany’s relationship with Iran is not a recent phenomenon. Historically, Germany has always felt more comfortable expanding via the continental route. For example, it attempted to use the Berlin-Istanbul-Baghdad-Tehran path to compensate for its inability to break through the Skagerrak Strait and into the Atlantic due to the presence of the British navy. Furthermore, arriving late to the colonial game, Germany looked to expand its influence in the Ottoman and Persian territories where local rulers saw Berlin as a benign European power due to its status as the challenger nation. Den Rest des Beitrags lesen »

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