„The escalating crisis within“

Nichts wirklich Neues, aber ein treffender Kommentar und Überblick über die Agonie des Regimes und die jüngsten innenpolitischen Auseinandersetzungen.

But regime officials and the groups divide further and carry on with their own fights, while the problems get worse. Neither Khamenei nor anyone else within the system appears to have any idea about fixing these problems. As individuals and as groups, they are best at fanning the flames.

We have a large part of the Iranian population which is very unhappy. The regime has not done anything to ease the unease of the post-election protestors; if anything, it has done a lot to upset even more people. The economy is getting worse, and the sanctions — despite what Ahmadinejad may say — will not make things easier.

A dangerous power vacuum is emerging, as Khamenei is not able to lead in many cases. Having to clear up the mess after something goes wrong, his authority is waning. The President does not appear to have the required competence, and regime reformists are excluded from any involvement. For some, the answer emerges that sections of the Revolutionary Guard may hope to grab power.

But none of these political scenarios offers an imminent answer. For the in-fighting and soul searching reveals a vacuum beyond the political vacuum of power, the emptiness may now be that of the principles of the Islamic Republic.

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