Daß sich die „Grüne Bewegung“ angesichts der Repression im Iran am „Al-Quds-Tag“ nicht lautstark bemerkbar machen würde, war im Vorfeld klar; es gab auch keine entsprechenden Demonstrationsaufrufe. Karrubi, der seine Teilnahme an den Zügen angekündigt hatte, wurde vom Regierungsmob vorsichtshalber in seinem Haus belagert. Die Frage war vielmehr: wie propagandistisch nachhaltig würde das Regime diesen ideologisch für das eigene Selbstverständnis so wichtigen Tag inszenieren können? Was war in Teheran und anderen Städten wirklich los? Offensichtlich nicht so viel. Scott Lucas resümiert bei enduring america seine Medienauswertung:
There had been early-morning shots of rallies in Kerman in central Iran and Oroumiyeh in the northwest, but those were not repeated and there were no other cities added to the list. And in Tehran, all I had were generic overhead shots which appeared to be of 3 September 2010. There was no correspondent amongst the supposed masses, no first-hand account of the Great Rally.
Late in the day, photographs from the Iranian Student News Agency gave some ground-level confirmation of a march filling a Tehran avenue, but even these were swallowed up by a curious theme in some of the Iranian media. The story in Tabnak, Mehr, and Fars was no longer the proud declaration of millions who had turned out; instead, it was a bitter denunciation of foreign media for “censoring” reports which could have shown that millions had turned out. And then a further twist: Fars put out a happier article that the Associated Press of “the West” had reported the million-person figure.
That could have been my salvation for an analysis. The only problem is that I could not find any AP article on the rally, let alone one that was putting up seven figures for the crowd.
And this morning, returning to my search, even the mention of Qods Day has disappeared. Some of the Iranian media has shuffled to other possibilities to show the regime’s legitimacy; some — notably the conservative Khabar Online — have returned to their pre-Friday stance of implied or even direct criticism of Ahmadinejad.
How do you analyse a non-event?