The most likely alternative regime for Syria is a coalition, with opposition secular and Islamic elements coalescing with less tainted inhabitants of the present power structure who might see the light or at least their better interests. The notions that the present ruling clique will be replaced by a “black hole” or a fanatic Sunni Islamist theocracy are scare stories propagated for self-serving reasons by the Syrian regime and its Western fellow travelers. Of course there is always a danger that regime repression may stir sectarianism and service self-fulfilling prophecies.
Obviously, the suddenly uncertain outlook in Syria must be a worry for Bashar al-Assad’s Iranian and Hezbollah allies. A new Syria would have no reason to be friendly to Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which have both fulsomely declared their backing for the Syrian autocracy and therefore for its murders, its criminality and its savage treatment of popular protest. Indeed, crowds of Syrian demonstrators have already chanted „No Hezbollah, no Iran.“ A new Syria will also not quickly forget those Lebanese who have hastened to comfort Bashar al-Assad and to endorse the dictatorship in Damascus and its stability of the gulag and the graveyard.