Michael Totten schreibt, warum Hizbollah und Iran bislang vom „arabischen Frühling“ nicht betroffen sind:
Hezbollah isn’t the government, it’s a terrorist army, and it controls Lebanon from the shadows, where demonstrations can’t reach it. Lebanon has produced more mass demonstrations than any Arab country by far, and has been producing them since 2005. But guerrillas in hardened bunkers who can’t wait to go to heaven after impaling themselves on the Zionist Entity don’t care two figs what protesters in Beirut, or even ostensible government ministers, have to say.
Syria and Iran arm and equip Hezbollah, and Hezbollah controls the Lebanese-Israeli border, so that border has effectively become the frontline not only in the Arab-Israeli conflict, but also the Iranian-Israeli conflict and the conflict between the West and Iran in general.
Hezbollah has more rockets and missiles — as well as more powerful ones — than it did during the devastating 2006 war with Israel. Indeed, it has more rockets and missiles than most legitimate national militaries. It’s a real, bona-fide terrorist army — armed not with boxcutters and improvised-explosive devices but with the heavy weaponry possessed otherwise only by states.
Yet it retains all the advantages of a nonstate guerrilla army, making it exceptionally difficult to defeat even with conventional forces, let alone street demonstrations.
NATO’s low-grade intervention in Libya is dominating the headlines, but in hindsight it may look like a sideshow. If the Iranian ayatollahs develop nuclear weapons — and it seems like being overthrown is the only thing that will actually stop them — not only will their Syrian sidekicks enjoy a protective nuclear umbrella, so will their terrorist proxies in Gaza and Lebanon.
Breathtaking as it is to behold, the revolutionary wave will have to gain much greater force if it’s to avert the catastrophe that looms like a thundercloud over the region.