The Arab revolt makes Tehran nervous

Amir Taheri berichtet, dass man in Teheran zunehmend ratloser wird:

 Ten days ago, Esfandiar Masha’i, the key strategist in Ahmadinejad’s administration, warned against „starry-eyed assessments of the events“ in Arab countries affected.

„We must not assume that the change will necessarily be in our interest,“ he said.

Newspapers controlled by the „Supreme Guide“ Ali Khamenei attacked Masha’i for „trying to create the impression that the Arab Uprising is not profoundly Islamic.“

However, the Islamic Majlis, Iran’s fake parliament, has just published a lengthy analysis that echoes Masha’i’s alleged „pessimism.“

It says that Libya will end up under a new government backed by the United States. Nevertheless, the Majlis rejects the idea of backing Muammar Gaddafi to prevent the US from scoring a strategic gain.

The analysis also admits that Egypt and Tunisia will end up under new pro-Western regimes backed by their respective armies. The most that Tehran could hope for is to restore diplomatic ties with Tunis and Cairo. But even that „does not look likely at present.“

The Majlis analysis insists that the Islamic Republic should deploy „strategic support“ for President Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria to crush the popular revolt.

In that context, the analysis adds, the role of Hezbollah in Lebanon is „of special importance“. The „spread of revolt to Syrian cities“ a threat to „the interests of the Islamic Republic“.

The analysis recommends hat Hezbollah units be used to affect the outcome of the current tensions, especially in Bahrain and Yemen through „asymmetric warfare.“

The Majlis report calls for using Hezbollah to „strengthen our zone of influence in Lebanon“.

The analysis also recommends the use of „clandestine operations“ against Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Another move recommended by the analysis is to „extend and deepen relations“ with Qatar as a means of dividing the Gulf states. With the fall of the Syrian regime now a possibility, the analysis recommends „strengthening relations with Nuri Al-Maliki’s government“ in Iraq.

All in all, however, the analysis, predicts that Iran’s relations with the Gulf states, except Qatar, may be severed at some point in the future.

The Majlis report also predicts a popular revolt in neighbouring Azerbaijan and recommends that „contingency plans be drawn to face any eventuality.“

An prising in the former Soviet republic may quickly spread to Iran’s Azerbaijani provinces that account for almost 15 per cent of the total population.

The Islamic Republic looks like a man who, all his life, has dreamt of a big do in which he would be the heart of the party but, when the party comes in the end, he has the door shut in his face.

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