Iran’s problem: Post-revolutionary Syria as an Enemy

Syrian protestors say they will keep on demonstrating until the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Iran’s staunchest ally, will be toppled.

The Iranian leadership knows that if the Assad regime falls, the Iranian expansionist dream of recreating the greatness of the Persian Empire — from the Pakistani border to the Mediterranean Sea — will be doomed. Iran has simply been using Damascus as a spearhead into the Arab world.

Syria’s isolation entails a weakening of the Iranian regime, and at a time when it is aiming to impose itself as a regional superpower. Despite the bullish rhetoric that Iranian leaders keep on dispensing, the Iranian regime is currently in trouble: without Assad, Iran will be isolated. (…)

Iran needs Assad as an ally to keep its foot in the Arab world and to have access to Lebanon to provide weapons and support to Hezbollah. Moreover, if Syria falls, that development could encourage the Iranian opposition to go out in the streets again and defy the regime. Salehi’s statements of sympathy towards Syrian protestors will not fool any post-revolutionary Syrian government: such a new government will support toppling the mullahs‘ regime. That is why, if a democracy movement succeeds in Syria, the Iranian regime might be the next to go.

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