Düstere Aussichten

George Friedman, Leiter von Stratfor, über die mal wieder anstehenden Verhandlungen mit dem Iran, die Rolle der Türkei dabei sowie die akkuten Gefahren im Nahen Osten:

The United States now faces a critical choice. If it continues its withdrawal of forces from Iraq, Iraq will be on its way to becoming an Iranian satellite. Certainly, there are anti-Iranian elements even among the Shiites, but the covert capability of Iran and its overt influence, coupled with its military presence on the border, will undermine Iraq’s ability to resist. If Iraq becomes an Iranian ally or satellite, the Iraqi-Saudi and Iraqi-Kuwaiti frontier becomes, effectively, the frontier with Iran. The psychological sense in the region will be that the United States has no appetite for resisting Iran. Having asked the Americans to deal with the Iranians — and having failed to get them to do so, the Saudis will have to reach some accommodation with Iran. In other words, with the most strategically located country in the Middle East — Iraq — Iran now has the ability to become the dominant power in the Middle East and simultaneously reshape the politics of the Arabian Peninsula.

The United States, of course, has the option of not drawing down forces in Iraq or stopping the withdrawal at some smaller number, but we are talking here about war and not symbols. Twenty thousand U.S. troops (as the drawdown continues) deployed in training and support roles and resisting an assertive pro-Iranian militia is a small number. Indeed, the various militias will have no compunction about attacking U.S. troops, diplomats and aid workers dispersed at times in small groups around the country. The United States couldn’t control Iraq with nearly 170,000 troops, and 50,000 troops or fewer is going to result in U.S. casualties should the Iranians choose to follow that path. And these causalities would not be accompanied by hope of a military or political success. Assuming that the United States is not prepared to increase forces in Iraq dramatically, the Iranians now face a historic opportunity. [Weiterlesen…]

Stichwort „Gemeinsame Interessen“

Reuel Marc Gerecht im Weekly Standard über die Rolle der „Islamischen Republik“ im Irak. Nichts Neues, aber trotzdem immer wieder zu betonen. Vor allem das Folgende sollte sich Obama hinter die Ohren schreiben:

The Islamic Republic is a different type of menace from the Soviet Union, with a much more vicious, America-centric ideology at work among the regime’s hardcore. We are fortunate that this ideology is contained within a state that has assets we can destroy. But Tehran needs to know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that we are prepared to shake the foundations of the Islamic Republic if it continues to kill Americans.

If the press reports are true about Iran now supplying surface-to-air missiles to the Taliban, then we are asking for Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guards to hit us even harder if we don’t respond militarily to their provocation. Such weaponry is a significant escalation over Explosively Formed Penetrators. Any serious threat to American and NATO helicopters in Afghanistan could be militarily and politically paralyzing. As the WikiLeaks documents reveal, Iran is a connoisseur of Machtpolitik, which remains, alas, the Middle Eastern way of measuring men and their faiths. Iran’s great Sufi poets of brotherhood and love are so cherished by ordinary Persians because the country’s rulers have so often ruthlessly worshipped power. If the United States is to win in Afghanistan, President Obama will need to read Saadi less and Khomeini more.

Filling the Void in Iraq

Ryan Mauro über Teherans zunehmenden Einfluss im Irak:

Last week, the U.S. removed its last full combat brigade from Iraq, bringing troop levels down to about 50,000. The withdrawal comes as the Iraqi political parties struggle to form the next government and Iran increase its efforts to control Iraq. The war isn’t over; it’s just entered a new phase.

Iran and Syria’s meddling in Iraq went into overdrive around the time of the Iraqi elections in March. The Iranians were funding two religious Shiite parties, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Sadrist Movement $9 million and $8 million per month respectively. Posters criticizing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and indicating Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani had endorsed the religious parties were printed in Iran and set up in Iraq. [Weiterlesen…]

Iranische Geschichtspolitik: Die Toten sind untot

Und die Toten wackeln auf ihre Art an den historischen Fundamenten der Islamischen Republik Iran. Niemand entkommt seiner Vergangenheit. Und irgendwann, irgendwann werden sich die Massengräber auch hier öffnen. Nicht nur für Historiker spannend, enduring america über ein neues Kampffeld innerhalb des Establisments.

I cannot help getting the feeling that officials are using nationally important information for their personal or factional gain, yet one effect of these disclosures is that they will further erode the Islamic Republic’s historical foundations. In this crisis, the regime’s important days being tarnished: Qods [Jerusalem] Day in became “not Gaza, Not Lebanon” day, 13 Aban [in November] was a day when the regime’s commemoration was so heavily guarded that it looked as if its marchers were prisoners, 16 Azar [National Students Day in December] became an occasion on which universities across the country voiced their protests, the funeral of a Grand Ayatollah Montazeri in the holy city of Qom turned into an anti-Khamenei demonstration, the religious celebration of Ashura [27 December] became a day on which the regime murdered its own citizens on the street, 22 Bahman [11 February] saw Iranian cities turned into military camps, and 14 Khordad [4 June] saw the humiliation by regime insiders of the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini on the anniversary of his death.

Now the carefully guarded regime-backed version of the Iran-Iraq War is being disputed by regime insiders.

Next chapter to come soon?

Iran threat to US troops in Iraq on rise

General Ray Odierno über Irans Einmischung im Irak (aber ja nicht in die „inneren Angelegenheiten“ der „Islamischen Republik einmischen, Mr. President!):

The U.S. military is beefing up security around its bases in Iraq in anticipation of Iranian-backed militants looking to score propaganda points by attacking American soldiers leaving the country, the U.S. commander said Tuesday.

Gen. Ray Odierno said the Iranian threat to U.S. forces has increased as Tehran looks to boost its political and economic influence in Iraq in the face of a decreasing U.S. military presence.

„There’s a very consistent threat from Iranian surrogates operating in Iraq,“ and security has been stepped up at some U.S. bases, Odierno told reporters in Baghdad. He added that joint operations with Iraqi forces against suspected Iranian-sponsored insurgents have also been increased, while the scheduled withdrawal proceeds apace. [Weiterlesen…]

MEMRI-Kurzmeldungen, 30. Mai 2010

Iranian Majlis Member: Russia Supplied Iraq with Materials to Produce Chemical Weapons for Use against Iran

Against the backdrop of the current tension between Iran and Russia, a member of the Majlis national security committee, Heshmatollah Falahat-Pisheh, stated that during the Iran-Iraq war, Moscow had provided Iraq with supplies to produce chemical weapons for use against Iran.
He also referred to the Kremlin’s disdainful response to the complaint of the Iranian president about Russia’s lack of support for the Tehran Declaration, calling it „a hasty move,“ and urged Russia not to sacrifice its long-standing interests vis-à-vis Iran for the sake of „a short-term political game“ with the U.S.
Source: Irinn.ir

Iranian Daily: Obama’s Strategy – A Continuation of Bush’s Policy

The daily Jomhouri-ye Eslami stated that the national security strategy presented by Obama on May 28, 2010 is nothing but an attempt to perform „plastic surgery on America’s scarred face,“ and is in fact a continuation of Bush’s policy.
The daily also said that Obama’s deception aims to deal with the criticism against him over his failures in the economic and international arenas.
Source: Jomhouri-ye Eslami

MEMRI-Kurzmeldungen

Aha!
Iranian Atomic Chief: We’ve Received New Proposal From West

Bitte bei Fars nachsehen
Iranian Warship Anchors In Qatar During Clinton’s Visit

Was wollen die Russen eigentlich?
Russian Official: We’ll Supply S-300 To Iran

Streit angesagt?
Iraqis Resent Ahmadinejad’s Statement About De-Ba’thification

MEMRI-Kurzmeldungen

Iraq VP Secretly Visited Iran To Discuss Elections With Ahmadinejad

Kayhan: Iran Hasn’t Rejected Nuclear Deal

Ahmadinejad: Iran, Iraq Will Support Each Other

Iran’s Official News Agency: Reports On Israeli, Iranian Tourism Ministers’ Handshake – A Lie

The Extended Finger From the Mullahs’ Clenched Fist

Die Islamische Republik Iran besetzt ein irakisches Ölfeld und die Vereinigten Staaten ducken sich weg:

“There has been no violence related to this incident and we trust this will be resolved through peaceful diplomacy between the governments of Iraq and Iran,” a US military spokesman told AFP at Contingency Operating Base Adder, just outside the southern Iraqi city of Nasiriyah.

“The oil field is in disputed territory in between Iranian and Iraqi border forts,” he said, adding that such incidents occur quite frequently.

Michael Ledeen über more of the same:

So today’s event is part of a well established pattern:  Iran attacks us and our friends and allies, and we look away.  This is the theme of Accomplice to Evil.  Just as we dithered and “negotiated,” as the Nazis prepared the Second World War, and then as the Soviets prepared the Cold War,  so we have dithered for thirty years as the Islamic Republic has waged war against us.  Do not think for a minute that this sort of appeasement is unique to Obama;  the unique thing about the current phase is that we are so open about it.

MEMRI-Kurzmeldungen

Iraqi Parliament to Discuss Wide-Ranging Protocol with Iran

Claims In Iran: Saudi Arabia Is Waging Anti-Iran Campaign

‚Kayhan‘ Editor: 5+1 Backs Down* From Freeze Demand

Iranian MP: Jamming Of Foreign TV Broadcasts Poses Health Danger

——————
*to back down = klein beigeben, nachgeben

Ich habe wirklich keine hellseherischen Fähigkeiten, aber es ist doch frappierend, wie sich meine Folgerung innerhalb von 24 Stunden bewahrheitet hat: Es spielt für eventuelle  weitere Verhandlungenüberhaupt keine Rolle, ob sich der Iran gerne noch in Drittländern mit angereichertem Uran eindeckt oder nicht.

MEMRI-Kurzmeldungen

“Forscherdrang”
Iran To Launch Third Research Rocket

Kommender Adlatus von Irans Gnaden?
Former Yemen President Asks Iran To Send Him Back Home

Und wieder rotiert das Personalkarussel
Khamenei Orders Another Round Of Military Appointments

Leise Kritik aus dem Nachbarland
Iraqi VP Criticizes Iran

Einmischung in innere Angelegenheiten? Aber nein doch!

Der irakische Parlamentssprecher Ayad Al-Samarai kommt von einem Iran-Besuch zurück und verkündet mehr oder weniger deutlich, dass der Iran im Irak mitregiert.

Ach nee, das hätten wir jetzt aber nicht vermutet….

MPs Acknowledge Iranian Interference in Iraqi Affairs

Following the visit to Iran last week by Iraqi parliamentary speaker Ayad Al-Samara’i described Iraq’s relations with Iran as „sensitive,“ adding that Iraqi society has conflicting views about these relations.

Others referred to Al-Samara’is visit, as well as those by many other politicians including former Iraqi prime minister Ayad Allawi, as a pilgrimage to Tehran. This is an indication of the level of Iran’s interference in Iraqi affairs.

MP Ahmad Al-‚Alwani said, „The Iranian interference requires no effort to look for it. It is clear particularly that some political parties which came to power in 2003 grew up in the bosom of Iran, and some of their leaders have declined ’sovereign posts‘ so as not to lose their Iranian nationality.“

Iran is also known to support financially many of the political parties and groups that will run in the national elections, scheduled for January 2010.

Source (via MEMRI): Ur News, Baghdad, 4. Oktober 2009

Noch genügend Kohle für Terrorfinanzierung übrig!

Intelligence Report: Iran Financing Al-Qaeda in Iraq

A report submitted to Iraq’s senior leadership by the Iraqi Intelligence Service indicates the existence of three terrorist organizations or groups which carry the name of Al-Qaeda – two of which are financed by Iran.

The first organization is linked with the Al-Qods Brigade (Failaq Al-Qods) under the supervision of General Qassim Suleimani. It has recruited citizens from the provinces of Baghdad, Al-Anbar, and Mosul trained in Iran but redirected into Iraq through other Arab countries to carry out murders, kidnappings, and bombings against targets in their respective provinces.

The second organization, or group, is known as the Islamic State of Iraq, led by Abu Hamza Al-Muhajer, an Egyptian citizens with connections with the world organization of Al-Qaeda. The activities of this group have been constrained due to the strength of the first organization, and because many of its leaders have been killed or captured. The group continues to carry out assassination and bombings.

Zu den Geschehnissen in Camp Ashraf

Gewiss: es handelt sich bei den iranischen Volksmudschaheddin um keine sympathische Truppe. Sektenartig organisiert, brutal sowohl gegen Feinde als auch die eigenen Aktivisten vorgehend wünscht man diese obskure Gruppierung sicher nicht in politische Verantwortung.
Die 3.500 ihrer verbliebenen Kämpfer, die in der einstigen Operationsbasis Camp Ashraf hausen, 80km von der iranischen Grenze entfernt, mussten nach der Entmachtung ihres Schutzherrn Saddam Hussein 2003 die Waffen niederlegen, im Gegenzug gab es aus Washington eine Sicherheitsgarantie.